Category Archives: Iran

Iran–The Worst Deal

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Dr. Peter Vincent Pry

President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran is not only a bad deal, but the worst deal possible–because Iran probably already has the bomb.

Consider the facts.

Iran A-Bomb Overdue

Historically, judging from open source estimates, the time required for all other nations to develop atomic weapons is 3-12 years.  Iran, which has had a nuclear program for over six decades and been crashing on the bomb for 25-30 years, should have developed atomic weapons by now.

For example:

The United States during the World War II Manhattan Project (1942-1945) built the first atomic bombs, two different designs, in just 3 years.  In just 3 years, when the atomic bomb was merely a theoretical possibility, the U.S. invented the two basic A-Bomb designs–the gun-type A-Bomb used on Hiroshima and the implosion-type A-Bomb used on Nagasaki–that are the basis for all atomic (fission) weapons and are the technological gateway to more sophisticated and powerful thermonuclear (fusion) weapons, including the H-Bomb.  In just 3 years, the U.S. invented and built the nuclear scientific and industrial infrastructure that mass produced thousands of A-Bombs and H-Bombs after 1945 during the Cold War.

Read Richard Rhodes’ The Making of the Atomic Bomb (1987) and consider whether it seems plausible that–where the U.S. invented the bomb and its nuclear weapons infrastructure in just 3 years using 1930s and 1940s era science and technology–supposedly (according to the Obama Administration) Iran has not yet duplicated the U.S. feat of World War II.  Yet Iran has access to copious unclassified materials on making and designing fission and fusion weapons.  Yet Iran is informed and equipped with 21st Century science and technology.  And Iran has been crashing on the bomb for 8-10 times longer than the U.S. WWII Manhattan Project–for 25-30 years.

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Today North Korea–Tomorrow Iran

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Can Israel trust Vice President Joe Biden’s March 9 promise to Prime Minister Netanyahu and the people of Israel that America “will act” if Iran violates the nuclear deal?

 

Dr. Peter Vincent Pry

The Obama administration’s willful blindness to the present nuclear missile threats emanating almost daily from North Korea is a “teaching moment” on how President Obama–and any future Democrat administration that supports Obama’s nuclear deal–will respond to nuclear missile threats from Iran.

Denial.  Obfuscation.  Impotence.  This is how President Obama is reacting to the fact that North Korea is a fully fledged nuclear missile state.  No doubt it is how President Obama, or a future President Hillary Clinton or President Bernie Sanders–who also support the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA)–will react when Iran reveals to the world that it too is a nuclear missile power.

North Korea has conducted four overt nuclear tests, the last possibly of a hydrogen bomb.  All of these nuclear tests are illegal violations of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which North Korea once subscribed in order to acquire its nuclear infrastructure.

Of great significance for the case of Iran, North Korea’s nuclear tests are flagrant violations of the Agreed Framework.  The Agreed Framework is not an official treaty with the U.S. but an agreement concluded with President Bill Clinton under his executive authority–exactly the same unconstitutional basis for President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran.

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Nuclear Iran: The Sanctions Delusion

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By: Dr. Peter Vincent Pry

The Obama Administration, and its critics, are mistaken that Iran’s nuclear negotiations are motivated primarily by economic sanctions.

Since revolutionary Iran’s seizure of the U.S. Embassy in 1979, every presidential administration has imposed on Iran new and ever more stringent economic sanctions restricting trade and seizing financial assets.  Most recently, in 2010 and 2013, President Obama imposed the latest round of economic sanctions, advertised as the most stringent ever, that include prohibiting banking transactions in the rial, Iran’s currency, and even restricting importation of Iranian caviar.

Historically, economic sanctions have had little or no discernible effect on altering Iran’s dangerous behavior, such as its world leadership of international terrorism and its development of nuclear weapons. Analyst A.E. Torbat concludes, “overall, the sanctions’ economic effect… has been significant, while its political effect has been minimal.”

Mistakenly, the Obama Administration and its critics both assume that Iran’s primary reason for initiating negotiations over its nuclear program is the coercive success of economic sanctions. Much energy is being expended, uselessly, debating whether the threat of additional economic sanctions will finally compel Iran to give up its aspiration to become a nuclear weapons state. The short answer is — economic sanctions did not bring Iran to the negotiating table in the first place.

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If Iran Already Has The Bomb, What Then?

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Hardening infrastructure will be key to minimizing the threat

By: Dr. Peter Vincent Pry

A majority of Americans support a military strike to stop or slow Iran’s nuclear weapons program. But that assumes Iran doesn’t already have some.

What if Iran already has one or more nuclear weapons and the capability to make a nuclear strike on the United States – right now? If true, this would change the calculation for the American people. Then the risks of a U.S. or Israeli military attack on Iran’s nuclear program would change radically.

The truth is, no one knows for sure just how far advanced Iran’s nuclear weapons program is. There are sound reasons for doubting Washington’s official estimates that Iran does not yet have the bomb or the ability to make a nuclear strike on the United States. The U.S. Manhattan Project during World War II, working with 1940s-era technology to develop nuclear weapons that were then merely a theoretical possibility, succeeded in building two working atomic bombs of radically different designs – in just three years. Iran supposedly has been struggling to develop nuclear weapons for 20 years, with help from nuclear-armed Russia, China and North Korea.

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Underestimating North Korea and Iran

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North Korea and Iran are not re-inventing the nuclear wheel. They can draw on a vast treasure trove of declassified information about U.S. nuclear weapons development. And they cooperate with one another. And we are talking EMP.

By: Dr. Peter Vincent Pry

The West consistently and unwittingly cooperates with North Korea and Iran by underestimating the advancement, sophistication, and strategic implications of their nuclear weapon and missile programs.

Despite North Korea’s successful long-range missile test in December 2012, and now its third successful nuclear test on February 12, 2013, the Obama administration and the press keep reassuring the American people that North Korea is not yet a fully fledged nuclear weapons state – that a North Korean nuclear missile threat to the United States is still years in the future.

The facts do not support this judgment. North Korea is already a major nuclear threat to the United States–an existential threat.

Common wisdom in the press, encouraged by the Obama Administration and North Korea, is that North Korea has not yet miniaturized nuclear warheads for missile delivery, and that its nuclear tests are in pursuit of designing a nuclear missile warhead. Indeed, the Obama administration and the western press both naively took at face value and parroted North Korea’s public claim that their third nuclear test is for nuclear warhead miniaturization.

Yet this claim is almost certainly disinformation designed to conceal that North Korea’s nuclear weapon program is advanced far beyond warhead miniaturization. Miniaturization to develop a nuclear warhead is not difficult to do, and can be accomplished even without nuclear testing.

North Korea and Iran both have strategic reasons to mislead and conceal from the West the true status of their nuclear and missile programs. They intend that the U.S. and its allies will underestimate those programs, fail to act in time to stop them, and be strategically surprised when North Korea and Iran become nuclear super-powers, and progenitors of a dystopian new world order.

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On Magical Thinking and the Doom of Nations

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By: Dr. Peter Vincent Pry

natanz

After just five days of negotiation, Secretary of State John Kerry claims to have an agreement to stop Iran’s march toward an Islamic Bomb, his historic diplomatic triumph announced on Saturday night (November 23, 2013), just in time to  headline the Sunday morning talk shows, that have focused for weeks on the failures of ObamaCare.

The Interim Agreement

Iran will destroy its stockpile of uranium enriched to 20 percent, halt further uranium enrichment, halt work on the Arak nuclear reactor, and allow daily United Nations inspections, in exchange for a partial and temporary suspension of economic sanctions.  According to Secretary Kerry, a permanent agreement is to be negotiated over the next 6 months to prevent Iran from ever building the Islamic Bomb, and that will return Iran to the fold of “normal nations.”

At least the above is the strong impression created by Kerry and White House spokesmen on the Iran deal during the Sunday talk shows.  By Tuesday, even the leftwing New Republic noticed that the  “achievements” of the Iran nuclear deal are not exactly what was trumpeted on Sunday.

In fact, under the terms of the interim agreement, Iran will not destroy its uranium stockpile enriched to 20 percent–which can be quickly enriched to 90 percent and turned into nuclear weapons.  Iran will retain control of this near nuclear weapons grade uranium, but has promised to convert it into a different chemical compound and enrich no more uranium to the 20 percent level over the next 6 months.

Both of these steps are so easily reversible as to be virtually meaningless as impediments to Iran becoming a nuclear weapons state.

In fact, under the interim agreement, Iran is not required to halt construction of the Arak nuclear reactor.  Tehran has agreed not to install fuel rods.  This step Iran almost certainly will be unprepared to do over the next 6 months anyway, as fuel rod installation is done during the final phase of reactor construction.  So Iran will continue to build the Arak nuclear reactor, that will provide an additional pathway to nuclear weapons by breeding plutonium.

In fact, under the interim agreement, United Nations inspectors will be allowed only at the few facilities already known to be part of Iran’s nuclear program.  The UN will not be allowed free ranging inspections or access to several huge and highly suspicious facilities, like the Quds underground complex.

More than likely, the largest part of Iran’s nuclear weapons program will continue at Quds and elsewhere.

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